You guessed it — the title of this blog post isn't meant entirely seriously. Even though there is a lot of talk about falling GDP and recession right now, when digitalization and automation in Germany are progressing too slowly and AI is loudly knocking on the door, the labor and skilled labor shortages will probably remain with us for some time.
There is still a shortage of workers in many sectors, such as crafts and trade, catering and care, as well as in education and training. Because the boomers are retiring faster than expected and Generation Z is looking for good earnings and work-life balance. For SMEs, this is a crux: large companies and corporations have been offering impressive salaries for years in order to attract interesting career starters. And they have the means and opportunities to quickly test the potential of AI and integrate it into their processes — more than many SMEs who are just happy to be able to process ongoing orders with their staff. There is also a lot wrong in public administration — due to a lack of personnel and digitization. At best, startups that position themselves for the future with their business models and a lot of enthusiasm look rather rosy — if they manage to successfully scale their often rapid growth.
For many others, the following applies: Many occupations and therefore jobs cannot be replaced overnight by robots or AI. This applies in particular to the areas mentioned above. In the future, however, jobs will be lost, which will reduce the shortage of workers and skilled workers. But which jobs are affected?
A McKinsey study conducted in the USA predicts that AI will lead to a loss of jobs, especially in office work, customer service and sales, as well as catering and production work (including manufacturing). According to this study, the low-wage segment in particular is being affected.
But even better and well-earning professionals are not on the safe side: At the end of September this year, the FAZ about a study by scientists from Harvard Business School, MIT Sloan, Wharton School, and Warwick Business School. They investigated whether and what effects AI has on the work of knowledge workers — using traditional management tasks as an example. Result: AI cannot replace them, but it can improve output. The logical consequence: Even among knowledge workers, jobs will be lost or fundamentally changed.
I find another aspect of this study at least as exciting: The capabilities of high and low performers are leveled out through the use of AI, in other words: knowledge workers who have so far shown below-average performance have caught up with AI — and significantly so. And that in turn will have an impact on skill-based recruiting.
Even though Elon Musk predicted in London a few weeks ago that AI would make work superfluous sooner or later, this assessment does not pulverize the current demand for workers and specialists. In my opinion, an individual approach to short, medium and long-term personnel policy is becoming increasingly important. SMEs must address issues such as the following:
What is in store for your company? Let's take a look at your facts and data together to discover and develop potential. Feel free to contact me or use my hybrid consulting service.
