Crisis is now part of everyday life — and it's not just been happening to me since the start of the 2020 pandemic. I find BANI all the more interesting, a new approach to illustrate the framework conditions of our time. What are the differences to VUCA, the model that has occupied us since the late 1980s, early 1990s? And what does that mean for companies, including SMEs?
Times are changing, as the ancient Romans knew. But our world has become more complex and chaotic, and we are becoming more and more aware of this. To describe the change, it is helpful to put the changed framework conditions into words.
As early as the late 1980s — after the end of the Cold War — the acronym VUCA was created, which stands for Volatility (impermanence), uncertainty (uncertainty), Complexity (complexity) and Ambiguity (Ambiguity) stands. VUCA opened the doors to agile corporate management and agile problem-solving strategies that work with scenarios, models or simulations, among other things.
BANI is an abbreviation that comes from Jamais Cascio, a futurologist, was developed to describe the framework conditions for an increasingly chaotic world. BANI stands for Brittle (brittle), anxious (anxious, worried) nonlinear (nonlinear) and Incomprehensible (UNINTELLIGIBLE). Because our present has become even more complex, even more unpredictable than expected in the VUCA world. Pandemic, climate crisis, political and economic uncertainties, in short: permanent crisis mode, are on the agenda and are the new challenges that politics, business and society must face. BANI should help to put this change into words.
In other words, systems that are rotten from the inside out, even though they still look intact from the outside. But a small change can cause these systems to collapse. The alternative: The shift towards more resilient and flexible systems that respond more adaptively to the challenges of the time.
In other words, anxious, describes the overwhelming task of making decisions in new and unfamiliar situations whose consequences are not fully foreseeable. Perhaps you still remember the sentence of former Health Minister Jens Spahn at the start of the pandemic: “We will have much to forgive ourselves.” Because we cannot afford to fall into shock and do nothing. What we can learn: to deal better with uncertainties and fears, to show courage and to act mindfully and emphatically, i.e. to explain a lot.
includes the loss of causalities, i.e. the ever-popular if-then thinking. We are keeping more and more balls in the air and should therefore remain flexible and keep an eye on the relevant context. Because even small changes could have far-reaching consequences.
In other words, incomprehensible, stands for changes that we cannot understand and which therefore make us all the more unsettled. Even though we have a lot of — often too much — information, it doesn't really make some events and decisions easier to understand. Where possible, more transparency helps to differentiate between signal and noise. And if that doesn't work either, we must learn to trust not only our head but also our intuition.
Even though day-to-day business is extremely demanding for almost all people, organizations and institutions — I think it makes sense to deal with the BANI world. So feel free to take a look at the following graphics by Stephan Grabmeyer, who clearly summarizes the differences between the two models.
Do you need orientation in the BANI world? Feel free to talk to me or use my new consulting service.
